Predicting the unpredictable

Retrospecting this season's Champions League and Europa League group stages, there might be some predictions with regard to the pending update of UEFA's Referee Groups that is expected to be made a few days before Christmas.

Expecting to see him in Elite soon: Pavel Královec (c) ZIMBIO

Promotions and demotions naturally depend on various and different factors, such as performances, crucial mistakes, prospect (also hinging on age), but also the political background of the referees who are concerned etc.
I therefore tried to take everything into account I am able to, specially the quality and importance of the matches the officials were assigned to and the observers who had been appointed to assess them.

Promotions are highlighted with green, demotions with red colour.

Elite group

In my opinion, there is no need to downgrade any referee who is currently belonging to the highest group in UEFA's roster. The only three critical cases are Martin Atkinson (ENG), Olegário Benquerença (POR) and Florian Meyer (GER). However, there are many reasons that contradict a demotion. While Atkinson did not manage to show convincing performances in the recent past and created some crucial mistakes like in Spartak-Fenerbahce and Lille-Bayern, it is very unprobable that England as a country that is naturally benefited in refereeing will lose a slot in the Elite group; furthermore, there is no English referee who could replace him in the highest grade. Benquerença is known for pretty many controversies in the past and for his pedantic style. UEFA and FIFA both accepted this style and these controversies, so that this should not be a reason to demote him. However, he suffered from many injuries so that one can either state that a) he has no visible prospect of the future as an Elite official or b) that his career's standstill is not his fault at all which results in the circumstance that he should not be punished for that. And finally, Germany's Florian Meyer had many problems in the last years, created a few crucial mistakes in his little Champions League matches but was never demoted. So why this time? There is no reason. He showed good performances in both competitions and will retire at the end of 2013, so actually a demotion would make no sense; in addition, there is nobody to replace him from Germany, probably committee member Herbert Fandel will try everything to facilitate a fluent passage with regard to Meyer's foreseeable retirement and Aytekin's potential to reach the Elite Group at the end of next year.

As for promotions, I would see two officials at the front line. Pavel Královec, who was appointed by FIFA for already two FIFA organized competitions as part of his appearance of 2014 World Cup's pre list, received important clashes and observers this season. Furthermore, we know that his crucial decision, a penalty in Man.City-Dortmund, was allegedly evaluated as a correct decision. Therefore, a promotion is finally inevitable. Besides, Serbia's Milorad Mažić has shown partly impressive performances in big stadiums and important or rather sonorous matches. The observers he got in the past (season) say everything: Hugh Dallas, Bo Karlsson, Jozef Marko, Kyros Vassaras, Mike Riley (committee members of UEFA and FIFA (Riley)), Johannes Reijgwaart, Rune Pedersen, Bertrand Layec etc. This series must mean a promotion. This Serbian official is certainly one of the hugest ascenders during the last two seasons, also with respect of his high level of authority and mental strength. 

My Elite group prediction therefore is (shaky candidates are indicated with a *):

Martin Atkinson (ENG)*, Olegário Benquerença (POR)*, Felix Brych (GER), Cüneyt Çakir (TUR), Mark Clattenburg (ENG), William Collum (SCO), Jonas Eriksson (SWE), Viktor Kassai (HUN), Pavel Královec (CZE), Björn Kuipers (NED), Stéphane Lannoy (FRA), Milorad Mažić (SRB), Florian Meyer (GER)*, Svein Oddvar Moen (NOR), Pedro Proença (POR), Nicola Rizzoli (ITA), Gianluca Rocchi (ITA), Damir Skomina (SVN), Wolfgang Stark (GER), Paolo Tagliavento (ITA), Craig Thomson (SCO), Alberto Undiano Mallenco (ESP), Carlos Velasco Carballo (ESP), Howard Webb (ENG)

Elite Development Group

As UEFA has deployed more referees from this 2nd highest group than ever before: 12 of the 14 ED referees received 29% of the Champions League group stage matches, many of them even got the maximum of three group stage encounters. For this reason, there might be some really profound predictions with regards to this category. 

I expect an immense, radical change here. Some of the officials have really commended themselves for higher tasks and a future in the Elite group, examples for that are Firat Aydinus (TUR), Daniele Orsato (ITA) or Aleksandar Stavrev (MKD). 

As already outlined, I predict two current ED officials to move up to ELITE, but an amount of six officials who could potentially be demoted. Marcin Borski (POL) had three matches where a mark in the area of 7.0-7.4 was probable, caused by an extreme lack of control and having produced crucial mistakes in all of these three matches (Anderlecht-AEL Limasol; Lille-BATE; Académica-Plzen). The fact that he was observed by two committee members (Vassaras in Anderlecht and Batta in Académica) shows UEFA's missing trust in this official. At the same time, Pawel Gil (POL) has shown good performances under the eyes of Jozef Marko and Hugh Dallas, which certainly indicates a change: Borski to First Group, Gil to ED. Moreover, France's Tony Chapron is already 40 years old, which means he should be now either promoted to ELITE or downgraded to First Group. In Spartak-Celtic, the red card he issued was correct but following a strange procedure and lack of teamwork, however, he missed a clear penalty there. Then, he was appointed for AC Milan-Zenit with committee member David Elleray of England as observer. And again, he missed a pretty obvious penalty and did not show a good performance apart from that either. Therefore, he should be demoted, while his countryman Antony Gautier will probably be promoted to ED. He was observed by Herbert Fandel's mate Eugen Strigel and committee member Bo Karlsson in his both Champions League matches and showed good performances. For performance reasons, David Fernández Borbalán (ESP), Bas Nijhuis (NED) and Peter Rasmussen (DEN) could be dropped. Manuel Gräfe (GER) is not that young either, was observed by Jaap Uilenberg, also member of UEFA's committee, which was not followed by a promotion. Then, he failed a fitness test at the start of 2012 and has now recovered from a serious injury. Aytekin, who was severely pushed in the last months, could be considered as UEFA's candidate who is supposed to replace him in ED, who actually needs time, also taking into account his Bundesliga performances, but whose promotion is pretty probable. Some other officials could be promoted from First group to ED. Croatia's Ivan Bebek was surprisingly appointed for two Champions League matches, where he showed good performances in front of two very important observers, Kyros Vassaras and Bertrand Layec. The condition for a promotion is that two referees from the same country are allowed (Marijo Strahonja should be safe in ED). Two Croatians in ED are possible and would correspond to their achievements. Spain's Anton Mateu Lahoz has proven to be a completely "Unspanish" referee. He normally allows hard tackles and tries to let the game flow in every possible situation, at least on international level, which sometimes leads to some missed fouls. His Champions League debut last week revealed smaller points for improvement, but a high degree of interaction with players and natural authority. I think UEFA should try it with him. His observers in the past four matches, László Vagner, Edgar Steinborn, Rodger Gifford and Iouri Baskakov, member of the committee, unveil the certainly high esteem UEFA has got. He would be able to fill the hole arousing from a potential demotion of Fernández Borbalán in ED. Last but not least, there are three extreme talents we should closely follow. Russia's Sergei Karasev, widely known as the "Russian Collina", received many committee members as observers in the past and showed very good performances and correct crucial decisions in his important matches. A promotion should be sure, also as Russia's refereeing head Roberto Rosetti could pull strings. Apart from him, there is also Romanian official Ovidiu Alin Hategan, who showed himself to be a very complete referee who is able to take brave decisions even in very crucial moments. Having Johannes Reijgwaart, Hugh Dallas and Rune Pedersen as observers strenghten that. And finally, Slovenia's Matej Jug has consistently improved when I followed his performances. After a good U21 Play-Off performance (Switzerland-Germany) under Uilenberg's observation, he got László Vagner and Karen Nalbandyan as observers. Nalbandyan is certainly not the most relevant observer for a potential promotion and I must say that I am torn whether Jug is already ready for this step. But even if I am wrong here, I am sure he will be in ED very soon. It is still a question whether István Vad may stay in ED after his mistake at EURO, which should actually not count for his referee career. I think UEFA cannot relegate him, at least they should not.

My Elite Development group prediction therefore is:

Firat Aydinus (TUR), Deniz Aytekin (GER), Ivan Bebek (CRO), Antony Gautier (FRA), Pawel Gil (POL), Tom Harald Hagen (NOR), Ovidiu Alin Hategan (ROU), Matej Jug (SVN), Sergei Karasev (RUS), Antonio Mateu Lahoz (ESP), Daniele Orsato (ITA), Aleksandar Stavrev (MKD), Marijo Strahonja (CRO), István Vad (HUN)

First Group

In this group, it goes much quicker, as most of the new referees in First group - according to my prediction - result from demotions of ED. So let's consider those officials who could be promoted from Second group into First group first.

Serhiy Boiko is one of the hopes of Ukraine's refereeing. As far as we know, Pierluigi Collina himself closely follows their officiating and makes advices. So he should actually know this official by hard and it certainly should have a reason that this official got two Europa League matches this season with two important observers. Francesco Bianchi and Horst Brummeier observed them, both seem to be, against the background of their previous matches as assessers, of high relevance. This week, Boiko awarded a penalty in the final stage of the match Marítimo-Brugge, which was right. Of course, we are definitely unable to follow every performance in the same manner, but the signs for a promotion of this referee are actually available. Israel's Liran Liany is obviously being followed by UEFA's decision makers as well. Apart from David Elleray, he was observed by important observers normally focused on developing officials: Juan Antonio Fernández Marin (who could be even regarded in a higher position them someone like Baskakov, who is in the committee), Jean Lemmer and the above mentioned Horst Brummeier. To be honest, I have only seen this referee twice, Hannover-Levante was among these matches. His performance was not totally weak, but far away from Europa League level. And still I cannot imagine that he will remain in this Second group. Therefore, I predict his promotion. Additionally, there are two officials who have been strongly pushed due to their modern refereeing style and origin, as they come from bigger referee nations. I expect Michael Oliver's (ENG), Clément Turpin's (FRA) and Felix Zwayer's (GER) promotion to FIRST. Besides, Robert Madden of Scotland has shown three very consistent performances in Europa League. Three matches for a 2nd Group official is a clear sign. Danny Makkelie (NED) showed a very good U-19 tournament this year, resulting in the deserved final appointment. After that, he showed many strengths and got observers like - again - Horst Brummeier (AUT) and László Vagner (HUN) (you should recognize a system in the observer appointments now..). In addition, I consider him as the most probable candidate from the Netherlands to follow into Kuipers' footsteps - and even to achieve more. Last but not least, Poland's Szymon Marciniak. Marc Batta in his U-21 Play-Off, David Elleray and Herbert Fandel in Europa League. These observers highlight the big interest UEFA has in this official. The performances I saw from him were promising, as Robert Malek will very probably quit FIRST, it is more than possible that Marciniak moves up.

I am moreover quite sure that Hüseyin Göçek has the potential to procede as well, but I have the feeling the time has not come yet, although remarkable assessors like Herbert Fandel, Bo Karlsson or Vítor Melo Pereira already observed him.

It is always difficult to refer to demotions, as they can have different reasons or impacts. However, a few ones are sure. Cyril Zimmermann (SUI) has announced his retirement from refereeing, the same counts for Bruno Miguel Paixao (POR). In compliance with his prospect and performances, Poland's Robert Malek should be relegated as well. Said Ennjimi (FRA), Daniel Stalhammar (SWE), Bülent Yildirim (TUR) and Simon Evans (WAL) had many problems in their matches, a real prospect is not visible. Stalhammar had even to fight with a couple of injuries.

Of course, there are many officials whom I still see in SECOND, but who have real potential and could emerge to future FIRST referees (or, if I am wrong, what I probably am, who already get a promotion now). Amongst them: Emir Aleckovic (BIH), Sebastian Delferiere (BEL), Kenn Hansen (DEN), Ivan Kruzliak (SVK), Antti Munukka (FIN), Halis Özkahya (TUR), Ilias Spathas (GRE), Martin Strömbergsson (SWE), Miroslav Zelinka (CZE) and the very good Estonian official Kristo Tohver, who could overtake his countryman Kaasik very soon. All these officials are very young and have a lot of time.

It's not clear whether guys like Mark Courtney (NIR) or Euan Norris (SCO) will stay in FIRST, as they presumedly had to cope with injuries or physical inconsistencies.

My First Group prediction therefore is:

Tony Asumaa (FIN), Pavel Cristian Balaj (ROU), Luca Banti (ITA), Vladislav Bezborodov (RUS), Kevin Blom (NED), Serhiy Boiko (UKR), Marcin Borski (POL), Tony Chapron (FRA), Carlos Clos Gómez (ESP), Mark Courtney (NIR), Antonio Damato (ITA), Mike Dean (ENG), Manuel de Sousa (POR), Laurent Duhamel (FRA), Fredy Fautrel (FRA), David Fernández Borbalán (ESP), Hüseyin Göçek (TUR), Duarte Gomes (POR), Manuel Gräfe (GER), Serge Gumienny (BEL), Martin Hansson (SWE), Kristinn Jakobsson (ISL), Stefan Johannesson (SWE), Hannes Kaasik (EST), Anastassios Kakos (GRE), Alan Kelly (IRL), Sascha Kever (SUI), Michael Koukoulakis (GRE), Libor Kovarik (CZE), Aleksei Kulbakov (BLR), Maksim Layushkin (RUS), Liran Liany (ISR), Robert Madden (SCO), Danny Makkelie (NED), Szymon Marciniak (POL), Andre Marriner (ENG), Menashe Masiah (ISR), Gediminas Mazeika (LTU), Bas Nijhuis (NED), Aleksei Nikolaev (RUS), Euan Norris (SCO), Michael Oliver (ENG), Lee Probert (ENG), Peter Rasmussen (DEN), Robert Schörgenhofer (AUT), Stephan Studer (SUI), Fernando Teixeira Vitienes (ESP), Stanislav Todorov (BUL), Leontios Trattou (CYP), Alexandru Tudor (ROU), Clément Turpin (FRA), Pol van Boekel (NED), Alon Yefet (ISR), Felix Zwayer (GER)

My Second Group predictions therefore is:

Emir Aleckovic (BIH), Sandor Andó-Szabó (HUN), Ievgenii Aranovski (UKR), Ionut Marius Avram (ROU), Mauro Bergonzi (ITA), Alan Black (NIR), Tamás Bognar (HUN), Marco Borg (MLT), Ruddy Buquet (FRA), Lars Christoffersen (DEN), Andrea de Marco (ITA), Sébastien Delferiere (BEL), Neil Doyle (IRL), Oliver Drachta (AUT), Jérome Efong Nzolo (BEL), René Eisner (AUT), Said Ennjimi (FRA), Aleksei Eskov (RUS), Simon Evans (WAL), Mihaly Fabian (HUN), Marco Fritz (GER), Mattias Gestranius (FIN), Vlado Glodjovic (SRB), Eli Hacmon (ISR), Kenn Hansen (DEN), Lorenc Jemini (ALB), Ken Henry Johnsen (NOR), Bosko Jovanetic (SRB), Jakob Kehlet (DEN), Thorsten Kinhöfer (GER), Aleksandar Kostadinov (BUL), István Kovacs (ROU), Ivan Kruzliak (SVK), Artyom Kuchin (KAZ), Harald Lechner (AUT), Michael Lerjeus (SWE), Richard Liesveld (NED), Robert Malek (POL), Paolo Mazzoleni (ITA), Steven McLean (SCO), Dimitar Meckarovski (MKD), César Muniz Fernández (ESP), Antti Munukka (FIN), Halis Özkahya (TUR), Marios Panayi (CYP), Radek Prihoda (CZE), Pavle Radovanovic (MNE), Anar Salmanov (AZE), Viktor Shvetsov (UKR), Anastassios Sidiripoulos (GRE), Hubert Siejewicz (POL), Artur Soares Dias (POR), Ilias Spathas (GRE), Daniel Stalhammar (SWE), Martin Strömbergsson (SWE), Kristo Tohver (EST), Richard Trutz (SVK), Jan Valasek (SVK), Paolo Valeri (ITA), Slavko Vincic (SVN), Ante Vucemilovic-simunovic jr (CRO), Michael Weiner (GER), Mark Whitby (WAL), Carlos Taborda Xistra (POR), Bülent Yildirim (TUR), Nikolay Yordanov (BUL), Miroslav Zelinka (CZE) + newcomers in 2013 and promotions from Third Group and the whole Third Group I am unable to predict.

And now, have your say!