Predicting the Wembley final referee

Following Wednesday's top-class performance shown by Björn Kuipers, it's time to shift focus on next week's UEFA Champions League final between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München in London's Wembley Stadium.

First of all it must be pointed out that, with all due respect to the difficulty of the task, this season's K.O. stage has been very weak in terms of refereeing. Besides some really positive exceptions, we were not spoilt by thus many good performances. Game-relevant decisions have been taken in a wrong manner, partly with a heavy and direct impact on the competition's course, the Laws of the Game were sometimes applied in a wrong way even by very experienced officials and there has been rarely that much public indignation and disgust with regard to referees and their performances. The bad thing: this medial outrage has been justified in most of the cases.

Against this background, it becomes very obvious that UEFA has to find the best referee possible for this final, a referee who can ensure a high-level performance that is completely free of polemical circumstances before and after the match. One tends to wish Björn Kuipers being the referee for Wembley, too...

Additionally, we have to focus on the type of match. Borussia Dortmund - Bayern München has been a very tough duel throughout the past seasons. Since Dortmund took the lead in Germany's Bundesliga in 2011, the deeply-rooted rivalry between both clubs became even larger. DFB has mostly appointed very experienced officials to take charge of this match in the past. Peter Gagelmann, Knut Kircher and Michael Weiner were the last referees in these duels. With the exception of Weiner, who refereed this match in a more unimportant competition format (Super Cup), Gagelmann and Kircher are both very lenient match officials whose main strengths are their charisma and personality, having a strong approach and good relationship to players. Hence, UEFA would be well advised if they selected a referee who harmoniously unites these strengths.

The following criteria must be applied when attempting to predict the final referee:

1. The referee has to belong to the highest referee category, the Elite Group.

2. A referee, who was appointed for one of the four Champions League semifinals, won't get the final.

3. Referees, who were already in charge of a Champions League final in their careers, won't get the final.

4. A German officiating team won't get the final due to the clubs involved.

5. As David Elleray of England is the referee observer, English and Scottish referees won't get the final.

The remaining officials are:

Olegário Benquerença (POR), Cüneyt Çakır (TUR), Jonas Eriksson (SWE), Pavel Královec (CZE), Stéphane Lannoy (FRA), Svein Oddvar Moen (NOR), Nicola Rizzoli (ITA), Gianluca Rocchi (ITA), Paolo Tagliavento (ITA), Alberto Undiano Mallenco (ESP), Carlos Velasco Carballo (ESP) 

Some of them can be erased from the pool of candidates due to weak performances or a background which makes a Wembley call-up almost impossible (not deployed in CL K.O. stage before, injuries...):

Cüneyt Çakır (TUR), Jonas Eriksson (SWE), Stéphane Lannoy (FRA), Nicola Rizzoli (ITA), Alberto Undiano Mallenco (ESP), Carlos Velasco Carballo (ESP)

Let's start with the two Spanish representatives Undiano Mallenco and Velasco Carballo. Both officials certainly have a huge international experience. Specially Velasco Carballo showed many good and solid performances in Champions League, among others in the quarterfinal's second leg between Juventus Turin and Bayern München, where he only showed smaller weaknesses. It's however quite unprobable, from my point of view, that Velasco gets this match: He was appointed as Europa League final referee in 2011 and assisted the Portuguese officiating crew in 2012 Champions League final as fourth official. Being nominated for three finals within 2 years (3 seasons) sounds irrealistic (but not impossible). In addition, Collina trusted in Velasco Carballo twice in very important moments. Not only in 2011 Europa League final, but also in the opener match of 2012 European Championship, the Spaniard failed to pay back this trust to a certain extent. In both matches, Collina himself was the observer. I doubt that he appoints him for such a match for a third time. Undiano Mallenco's chances are not really higher. His three group stage matches were ok, but easy to handle and, what is striking, they were not really important duels. He was only deployed once in the entire K.O. stage in both competitions, when he handled the first leg of the Round of 16 tie between Celtic and Juventus. Because of multiple facets, it was a controversial performance. Thus, he was publicly criticized by Celtic responsibles after the match. Moreover, his refereeing style is certainly more pedantic and does not correspond to the referee type I have in mind for this specific final match (see above).

After a long injury, Stéphane Lannoy returned onto the pitch and was frequently appointed in the last couple of months conveying ambivalent impressions. After an average performance at Stamford Bridge, he showed a strong one in Galatasaray - Real Madrid, which was however again followed by a so-so performance in Europa League semifinal SL Benfica - Fenerbahce. The first half was splendid, characterized by many correct decisions concerning in-box situations, the second half revealed basic lacks in terms of foul detection and keeping a high level of match control though. Lannoy has nonetheless proven to be a reliable referee who is able to show a solid performance when it is important. At Euro 2012, he was one of not many officials who could convince in the end. Lannoy has not only the necessary experience, he also has enough political power in the referee committee to be considered as a very probable bet for Wembley final. 

The most controversial name is Cüneyt Çakır. There is no need to repeat the story of Man. United - Real Madrid, a performance which is nearly impossible to analyze. Finding an adequate mark was even more difficult. The fact that Collina was the observer should make us prick up our ears. It is more or less the proof that UEFA's referee committee originally planned to appoint the Turkish referee team for Wembley. After all this medial aftermath and despite the justified sending-off, one must question whether UEFA is still thinking in that fashion. It must be clarified that Çakır would not face any form of medial slander in the German press. They have always proven to deal with referees in a fair way before matches. If newspapers like the Spanish Marca or the English Dailymail see themselves coerced to harrass him due to the performance at Old Trafford, UEFA should not be interested and Çakır should not feel any form of pressure. It's a German final, which needs the best referee possible. Let the foreign media say what they want to say. Of course it is also a political issue. Because the final is played on English turf, at the birthday of the FA, it could be perhaps a problem to justify the appointment. Anyway, I would not be surprised to read his name next week. But I do not think so. And those who already claim to know that the Turkish team were already sure and fixed for Wembley: nothing is decided.

Swedish Jonas Eriksson (c) ZIMBIO

Jonas Eriksson of Sweden corresponds to the refereeing style described before. He has a very good relation to players and is able to handle a match with natural authority and a lenient, but self-confident and consistent tactical approach. Nevertheless, his decision-taking often suffers a bit from that. In Shakhtar Donezk - Juventus Turin, he missed a penalty kick after a handball which was ruled as deliberate by Collina in a newspaper article after the match. In Schalke 04 - Galatasaray Istanbul, he had a couple of flaws in his disciplinary and foul-detection line - furthermore, there were many controversial scenes, such as potentially illegal goals or a missed penalty. Obviously, UEFA ignored that and appointed him for Málaga CF - Borussia Dortmund in the quarterfinals. Also here, a very good performance, but he missed a clear penalty to the German side which also should have been detected by AAR1. And again, UEFA ignored that. His mark must have been higher than 8.3, which would justify his nomination for Chelsea - FC Basel in the Europa League semifinals. At Stamford Bridge, he showed an excellent performance without any problems or difficulties. The observer "only" was Nuno Castro of Portugal, neither a very important observer, nor a committee member. I am quite sure that we will see Jonas Eriksson working at Wembley, but not as the main referee.

Italian Nicola Rizzoli (c) ZIMBIO

Last but not least, Italian official Nicola Rizzoli. There may be no doubt that Rizzoli has often shown in the past that he is able to adapt his style to the needs of the match. He has a strong personality and basically fulfills the criteria set above. At Euro 2012, he was already planned to get the final match, which was rendered void as Italy beat Germany in the semifinals. Now could be his time. The last Champions League final between two teams of the same countries, Juventus - AC Milan in 2003, was by the way overseen by German Markus Merk. This year, ten years later, it could be the other way round, an Italian referee for a German final. But it must be underlined that appointing Rizzoli would be good for this specific match, but would undermine the performance principle. His current shape is not really good, neither on national level, nor on international level. His performance in Málaga CF - FC Porto (CL Round of 16) was defective. He totally lost control in several stages of the match and wrongly disallowed an actually legal goal scored by the Spanish side. But in the end - who cares? The match was not really under huge medial attention. The underprivileged team, Málaga, won the match despite the annuled goal and qualified for the next round. Besides, perhaps this disallowed goal was shifted to AAR1's responsibility. Nobody will remember this match, if the Wembley call-up becomes reality. In the end one may also doubt the power of referee observer Ilkka Koho of Finland, who had to assess Rizzoli's performance in Málaga. If there perhaps was "top-down" pressure on his report, this match is no hurdle for Rizzoli.

It has been rarely thus difficult to predict the final appointment. 
My suggestion however is:

25 May 2013, 20:45 CET

Wembley Stadium, London, England

Borussia Dortmund - Bayern München

Referee: Nicola Rizzoli (Italy)

Assistant Referee 1: Andrea Stefani (Italy)

Assistant Referee 2: Renato Faverani (Italy)

Additional Assistant Referee 1: Gianluca Rocchi (Italy)

Additional Assistant Referee 2: Paolo Mazzoleni (Italy)

Fourth Official: Jonas Eriksson (Sweden)

Reserve Assistant Referee: Elenito Di Liberatore (Italy)
UEFA Referee Observer: David R. Elleray (England)
UEFA Delegate: Joël Wolff (Luxembourg)